Here’s the County’s assessment of potential EMS impacts. What’s interesting is they seem to be focusing on cost increases but did not identify the additional looming revenue hit.
Potential strain on emergency services
Valentine also warned that the changes could increase pressure on the emergency medical system if residents lose health coverage and delay treatment until medical emergencies arise.
Valentine said a worst-case scenario — such as the closure of a local hospital — could significantly increase emergency room demand at San Joaquin General Hospital and St. Joseph’s Medical Center.
Emergency medical services officials estimate the county hospital could see a 32% increase in emergency medical service deliveries and a 23% increase in emergency room volume in that scenario.
Meeting that demand could require adding four additional ambulances daily, costing roughly $150,000 per week, Valentine said.
Resources:
July 2025 PWW|AG Webinar on Potential HR 1 Impacts on EMS
https://www.ems1.com/legislation-funding/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-what-ems-leaders-must-know-now
https://aimhi.mobi/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/7-17-25-Table-of-Major-Provisions-in-HR-1-That-May-Impact-EMS.pdf
————–
San Joaquin County warns of $76.9M in costs due to Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’
Public health services facing largest losses, and clinics and hospital warn of ripple effects, strain on emergency services
Hannah Workman, The Stockton Record
March 11, 2026
https://www.recordnet.com/story/news/politics/government/2026/03/11/trump-one-big-beautiful-bill-san-joaquin-county-costs/89074087007
Key Takeaways:
- San Joaquin County officials warn a new federal law could shift up to $76.9 million in annual costs to the county.
- The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” makes changes to Medicaid and other safety-net programs, impacting local budgets.
- County health services, particularly behavioral health, face the largest potential revenue losses due to reduced Medi-Cal funding.
San Joaquin County officials warned this month that federal policy changes tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — including provisions scheduled to take effect after the 2026 midterms — could shift up to $76.9 million in costs to the county and increase pressure on hospitals, health clinics and social service programs.
The measure, signed by President Donald Trump on July 4, 2025, is a sweeping 10-year, $4.1 trillion fiscal package that extends many provisions from the 2017 tax cuts and makes major changes to federal safety-net programs. The legislation increases funding for defense and border security, raises the federal debt limit and reduces spending on programs such as Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program while adding new work and eligibility requirements for some recipients.
County Administrator Sandy Regalo told the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday, March 3, that the county estimates an annual budget impact of $50.9 million to $76.9 million.
“The range reflects the best case scenario to the worst case scenario in San Joaquin health clinics and the county hospital,” Regalo said.
Health services facing largest losses
County officials said the Health Care Services Agency could see financial impacts of $30.4 million to $34.4 million, with behavioral health programs expected to experience the largest share of lost revenue.
Health Care Services Director Genevieve Valentine said the county anticipates a significant drop in Medicaid revenue, known as Medi-Cal in California, tied to potential eligibility changes.
Behavioral health programs, which currently serve about 13% of residents who are uninsured or underinsured, could see the number of uninsured residents increase by as much as 35% over the next 18 months, Valentine said.
The department projects $22.5 million in lost Medi-Cal revenue, the largest reduction among the county’s health programs.
Public health services could also see reductions.
Valentine noted that $1.2 million in funding for the CalFresh SNAP-Ed nutrition education program was eliminated in September 2025, affecting community partnerships that provide nutrition education and healthy food demonstrations in schools and neighborhoods.
Additional state requirements could also create unfunded costs for programs such as the California Children’s Services program, which provides medical support for children with complex conditions. San Joaquin County serves about 4,000 children with chronic illnesses, and officials estimate potential county costs could reach $500,000 over the next 18 months if children lose Medi-Cal coverage.
Clinics and hospital warn of ripple effects
County-run health clinics could also be affected. About 85% of clinic patients rely on Medi-Cal, and officials estimate 2,000 to 4,000 patients could lose coverage or cycle on and off the program.
That could translate into $5 million to $9 million in lost annual revenue for the clinics, Valentine said.
Because the clinics are required to provide care regardless of insurance status, Valentine said reduced outpatient access could lead to more patients seeking emergency treatment at hospitals.
San Joaquin General Hospital CEO Rick Castro said the hospital — one of 12 public hospitals in California — could face $11 million to $30.8 million in potential financial impacts, depending on how federal and state policy changes unfold.
Castro said the hospital is already experiencing heavy patient volume.
“Today the hospital sits at 197 [patients],” Castro told supervisors. “We have about 100 adult beds and 97 patients in hallways and different areas. It’s a bigger challenge.”
Castro cautioned that some projections represent worst-case scenarios and may depend on future political and policy decisions.
“There’s a part of me that is not sure those scenarios are going to come to fruition,” Castro said.
Social services workload expected to rise
Changes tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could also increase administrative costs for county staff responsible for determining eligibility for benefits.
More frequent eligibility checks and expanded work requirements for Medi-Cal and CalFresh recipients would require additional verification and case processing.
About 314,000 San Joaquin County residents — roughly 39% of the population — are enrolled in Medi-Cal, Human Services Agency Director Chris Woods said.
Beginning in 2027, nearly 85,000 residents in the Medicaid expansion population may be required to document work, education, volunteer activity or exemptions every six months to maintain coverage.
Statewide, officials estimate the additional administrative workload at $231 million annually, with San Joaquin County’s share projected at about $4.6 million per year.
CalFresh changes could add another $103 million statewide in workload costs, while reductions in federal reimbursement for program administration could shift $2.7 million per year to the county.
Combined, those changes could cost the county nearly $9 million annually, Woods said.
Potential strain on emergency services
Valentine also warned that the changes could increase pressure on the emergency medical system if residents lose health coverage and delay treatment until medical emergencies arise.
Valentine said a worst-case scenario — such as the closure of a local hospital — could significantly increase emergency room demand at San Joaquin General Hospital and St. Joseph’s Medical Center.
Emergency medical services officials estimate the county hospital could see a 32% increase in emergency medical service deliveries and a 23% increase in emergency room volume in that scenario.
Meeting that demand could require adding four additional ambulances daily, costing roughly $150,000 per week, Valentine said.
County leaders push for state action
Supervisors said the financial risks highlight the pressure counties face when implementing state and federal programs without sufficient funding.
District 5 Supervisor Robert Rickman, who represents the county in the California State Association of Counties, said the issue is a top concern among local governments statewide.
“These cost shifts that are coming down could completely disrupt counties and the basic services that we deliver,” Rickman said.
Rickman said county officials plan to work with state lawmakers to seek long-term funding solutions.
“Our county is being proactive rather than sitting on our laurels and waiting for the state or anyone else to rescue us,” Valentine told supervisors, noting that internal work groups have already begun planning responses.
Supervisors said they will continue advocating for funding to prevent service cuts.
“County solvency is on the line,” Rickman said. “Shifting costs to counties without significant resources attached is not an option.”